Une 2éme dévaluation du CFA est possible

By Gregory Biyogo, political scientist, Egyptologist and philosopher. Founder and director of the Institute Cheikh Anta Diop (ICAD). Professor at the Laboratory of contemporary logic of Paris VIII.

Since mid-November 2011, persistent rumors circulating about a possible devaluation of the CFA that would occur on January 1 2012. This second devaluation of the CFA Franc justifiably concerned African countries of the Franc Zone, in an international context characterized by economic stagnation and financial. This information would come from three journalists from the daily Ivorian "Our Way", which would have drawn on themselves a European diplomatic source. So, Are these rumors to be taken lightly ? Or, conversely, should we not take them seriously ? What is the solution advocated such a measure to tackle ? Political scientist, Specialist oil and economic globalization , I felt an urgent need to take sides in this debate topical.

1-The current context of economic stagnation in Greece, Crisis Italy and the Euro, and severe worsening of the debt in European countries, and stagnation if not dizzying expansion rate of unemployment in the old country, and the collateral effects of this crisis on African countries, economically and financially dependent on France, which is home to centuries of the franc zone, makes the possibility of a second devaluation of the CFA only concern in countries of the Franc Zone (PAZF) , particular concern and intellectuals, Economists and political scientists of the older continent of humanity. In addition, just before the French presidential elections 2012.

2-Could they continue to oppose this appalling situation and the eternal indifference to crimes as serious and remained inconsequential court against Africa such as those described recently by the French political sociologist Pierre Pean, about The Republic briefcases, who says quietly as a ton of money (figures in billions of CFA francs) were extracted to Africa already battered economically with impunity to finance election campaigns French ? What is shocking is that the continent's largest debtor (montant estimé à 215 billion) continue to transfer huge sums to creditors (capital flight exorbitant, estimés à 285 million between 1970 and estimatedsing a system to grow disproportionately wear rate of the debt.

3-Or, it is known that a second devaluation would be disastrous for the continent but would allow countries to the euro area, including France to better withstand the severe crisis that beats its economy and promote widely funding deficits increased. Especially since Germany is now refusing to support unilateral payments deficits of the franc zone and the sum of France also contribute. So, beyond the lazy theory of rumor, understanding of European economic and financial goals today has elements that may explain the possibility of a second devaluation of the CFA Franc. And thus force the experts and other commentators to attempt predictive approaches to counter such possibility, if it was still possible. Because we know, such a decision is first political, Who is responsible in particular for France. Let's start with three specify necessary :

1) In contrast to its apparent neutrality, currency determines the fate of Nations, and provides a financial power, economic and political to those who have control. The international monetary system operates on the repatriation of funds of the "periphery" to the North, depriving developing countries of the world, by those in Africa, the legitimate dream of improving their living conditions and curbing their aspirations for democracy.

2) Then point out that in addition to cooperation agreements 1960, there is a Convention (cooperation) Monetary dated 1972 between the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) and France on the one hand and another signed in December 1973, between the Member States of the West African Monetary Union (UMUA) and France on the other. The act specifically binding here is that, from 1960, African States ( former AOF and AEF) of France made their place 65% their foreign exchange reserves to the Treasury , in a joint account which management does not proceed with any transparency and critical data in the hands of the French. These transaction accounts earn interest and are exempted because they have all discovered the principle of an overdraft limit.

3) Finally, the devaluation of 1994, then led by Prime Minister Edouard Balladur was given for unavoidable because it seemed to be based on valid economic reasons because of the vagaries of our economies then : external debt exorbitant, deficits bank (on 107 States banks in the franc zone, 42 had failed in 1990), defaulting officers, falling commodity, balance of payments deficit ... the economic future of the continent was highly mortgaged Or ..., devaluation of January 1994 that was supposed to clean up the African economies has seen the introduction of SAP particularly unsuited to the economic endogenous, who permanently denied the promises, with the exception of a few countries. Otherwise, the context of their introduction is distinguished by the paradoxes, or even a contradiction : one hand, the La Baule speech delivered by Sphinx, François Mitterrand, which bodes well for aid to countries that would take advantage of opening up to democracy, but we know, these commitments were not kept. On the other hand, devaluation occurs at precisely the time when Africa was supposed to rediscover the virtues of democratic institutions. That way, what he has been given to see, it was not economic recovery, but a democracy without economic stability, syndrome Gorbachevism, with institutions in advance doomed to poverty, to instability, the dismantling of the internal unit.

1-The CFA franc, let us recall involves an exchange rate fixed to the world's highest, while the rule is to have a floating exchange rate. The fixed exchange rate allows French companies operating in Africa (Total, Bouygues, BNP Paribas, Bolloré, Societe Generale ...) to know no impairment on earnings, but rather to maintain any stability). Otherwise, its convertibility is at best a contradiction, which weighs heavily on our economies. How to continue to maintain the state this principle of free convertibility more expensive than ?

2-The CFA would run again so the risk of being devalued, and thus change the parity of the euro in Francophone Africa, which is likely to increase from 655, 59 A CFA F 1000 F CFA. Political and economic, more than money, the problem under consideration is considered by France as a budgetary problem and non-monetary, which remains the prerogative of the French Treasury which manages any exclusive.

3-Clearly, if the possibility of devaluation would be the second act in the first January 2012, increasing the parity between the euro and the CFA franc (that exceeds the 40%) would lower prices of our annuity products (coffee, cocoa, cotton, banana) and raw materials (manganese, uranium, Oil ...) exported primarily by French companies, it must be remembered, to this day occupy the forefront of trade in Africa. A logical fallacy is that the falling prices make these products more competitive on the international scene, but it is not actually, they would be significantly weakened ...

4-To even consider this hypothesis, revenues from which would help to increase their foreign assets which 65% must be filed as is well known to the French Treasury (operation, operating : the 65 % currently tend to 40%) according to the cooperation agreements in force, signed in 1960 by General De Gaulle, At the same time conceded that political independence for African countries, infiltrating their future through these special cooperation agreements binding on the economic, military and political.

5-So, this operation would be fully beneficial for France, that would provide additional revenue to the French Treasury and give him the means to repay at least part of its crushing debt.

6- The hypothesis of the second devaluation, even when it would be deferred, should generate a large reflection within two currency areas CEMAC and UEMOA, to anticipate situations that are not predictable ...

7-A summer, the challenge of the current thinking is to whether to continue to peg the CFA to the Euro ? If we should not allow themselves to other currencies ? Or deeper bet for disconnection ? A central issue, three schools exist in Africa. First, School political scientists, economists and monetarists who opt for the systematic revision of agreements, the flattening of the Conventions in order to give a new future, a different visibility CFA (Hypothesis I). Then the School of securing multi-CFA, corresponding policy to multilateralism. It recommends to open up more currencies (yen, dollar…), with equal cooperation. With among other economists like Sanou Mbaye. Finally, the third school, that of disconnection with the Euro and the creation of an African currency, school of thought that goes back to Kwame Nkrumah, passe par Cheikh Anta Diop, theorist of the general autoréférentiabilité of Africa, Samir Amin, theorist of the center, the periphery and disconnection Monetary North-South. Then Joseph Tchundjang Poem, transgressive theorist of the single African currency, Nicolas Agbohou and theorist of African Single Currency (MUA). Then Gregory Biyogo, theorist of deconstruction agreements Franco-African and an African single currency (MUA) based on the principle of moBUYary savings of equity. And finally, Mamadou Koulibaly, theorist of the rupture. Pending, should be chosen freely against a currency that is distinguished by the sign of the stress and economic repression. The relegation of the CFA franc to eternal money in African franc area countries and territories with unstable and fragile monetary heard in the context of the French Empire who wanted to maintain its position of control and repression of the Colonies. After independence - even formal - of 1960, According to the National Conference of 1989-1990, after the birth of the rule of law and of the first institutions of the African federal state, the CFA franc has become an obsolete currency, politically inappropriate to the situation of political sovereignty, the continent's economic and industrial. It is important to deconstruct the standards and free itself from tyranny, provided that an economic miracle is impossible in the current situation in the African franc area countries.

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